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Oil Prices Can Be Crashed by Iran Nuclear Deal

The U.S. has agreed to the removal of key sanctions in the Oil, gas, petrochemicals and automotive sectors and some in the banking sector. However, Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and the senior figures of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Guard Corp are also demanding the additional removal of individuals and their businesses from the U.S.’s sanctions list.

Although Khamenei has repeatedly stated that Iran will not and legally are not required to renegotiate any elements of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action from which the U.S. unilaterally withdrew in May 2018, the Iran sources believe that they may yield on this intransigent stance. Iran sources said that Tehran may be folding, with nationwide power outages and rising food shortages, rising inflation and depreciation of the rial raising the prospect of widespread civil unrest across the country.

Oil Prices Can Be Crashed by Iran Nuclear DealNorth Azadegan is producing around 80,000 BPD but the Phase 2 plan including the spudding of the new wells is aimed at boosting this output to at least 100,000 barrels per day. China is expected by Iran to ensure that the output from North Azadegan when combined with the output from South Azadegan is at least 250,000 BPD. South Azadegan is now producing a steady 105,000 BPD with spikes to 115,000 BPD. Longer-term, Iran plans to increase the recovery rate from all of its fields, beginning with those in West Karoun to at least 25% from the current 4.5%. The average recovery rate from Saudi Arabia’s Oil fields is around 50%, with plans to raise that to 70%.

Iran pumped 2.43 million barrels per day of crude in April. This was before U.S. re-imposing sanctions in 2018, Iran pumped around 3.9 million barrels per day of crude. It has plans to increase this to at least 5.7 million barrels per day within two years of the Implementation Day for the JCPOA on 16 January 2016, this target was postponed due to contracts with Western Oil companies not being finalised.

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