Spot gas prices began to sag across most United States. However, some areas remained strong due to early-season frigid weather. The National Avg. of NGI’s Spot Gas fell 1.5 cents to $5.550. Natural gas futures have struggled to maintain the elevated values emerging in recent weeks from global supply concerns, despite a brief jump near $6.000 on Monday. With the supply picture in the United States considerably improving over the last month and cold weather forecasts absent mainly, a negative background has arisen.
According to NatGasWeather, the period from Monday (November 1) to November 4 appears to be the only “decent” demand period projected for the next 15 days. As high upper pressure ruled most of the country, weather models predicted warmer temperatures would return by November 5. According to the forecaster, heavier cold blasts could be into Europe in the next five to 15 days. On the other hand, Asia, Europe, and the United States will most certainly have to wait until later in November for more chilling pictures.
The longer-range European model, according to NatGasWeather, continues to support near-normal to warmer-than-normal weather across all three regions for Nov. 7-25. Intraday price volatility, on the other hand, shows no indications of abating. The November Nymex contract fell to an intraday low of $5.595 before the afternoon rebounded as purchasing resumed. Wild price swings may continue as the November contract comes off the market in the coming days.
Federal officials have taken notice of the increased pricing situation, predicting that Henry Hub prices will average $5.63 from November through February. In addition, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has stated that, even though temperatures are projected to be milder than average this winter, prices are expected to rise by 103 percent from winter 2020-2021 fixed futures price.